Prediction: Not enough rain is coming to reverse trend
Recent rains and forecasts for the coming days are not enough to break the drought the Hill Country has endured the past several years, officials said.
Milan Michalec, a Cow Creek Groundwater Conservation District precinct 2 director, labeled the conditions gripping Kendall County as a “green drought.”
In agricultural terms, a green drought occurs when plant life looks vibrant and green, but the deeper roots are deprived of critical water because the soil is so dry.
“This is the continuation of a ‘green drought.’ Monitored wells (in the county) are still showing average water levels below monthly norms,” Michalec said.
The May Edwards Aquifer level out of San Antonio is up over previous months, but still registers 14.3 feet below the May average, at 1,190.47, hydrologists said.
Michalec said the current low rainfall trend began in the 202122 season.
He recently reviewed the four types of drought the state is seeing: • Meteorological drought is based on the degree of dryness or rainfall deficit and the length of the dry period.
• Hydrological drought is the impact of rainfall deficits on the water supply such as stream flow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater table decline.
• Agricultural drought refers to the impact on agriculture from factors such as rainfall deficits, soil water deficits, reduced groundwater or reservoir levels needed for irrigation.
• Socioeconomic drought considers the impact of drought conditions — meteorological, agricultural or hydrological — on supply and demand of some economic goods such as fruits, vegetables, grains and meat. It occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply because of a weather-related deficit in water supply Michalec said some parts of Kendall County received between 5.5 and 6 inches of rain over a seven-day period in mid-May.
That may have created the impression the water crisis was over, officials said.
“When rains come, conservation measures are forgotten,” Michalec said. “When the next drought occurs, with more population and more demand, it exacerbates the situation.”
Conservation measures and methods remain the most effective way to prevail over drought conditions.
“In the midst of this drought, those who have practiced conservation as a way of living, don’t feel the drought’s impact the same way,” he said.
Less turf, he said, and more native grasses and plants don’t need as much water.
In addition, municipalities using or developing reclaimed water save massive amounts of drinking water.
“Reclaimed water is worth everybody’s time. It requires using less drinking water,” he added.
Michalec said May and June are historically the wettest months.
“The likelihood of more rain is still high, as we’ve entered an El Niño. The conditions are right to have more rain,” he said.
But such rain, he said, will continue the “green drought” rather than end the existing dry spell.
El Niño is a climate pattern where Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are warmer than average, affecting global weather by weakening or reversing trade winds and having an impact on rainfall.
“When rains come, conservation measures are forgotten.”
— Milan Michalec, Cow Creek Groundwater Conservation District
